Forex Go!

Allowing Greece to leave the Eurozone will be painful but its like cutting off an arm with gangrene – it just needs to be done to save the euro. In the short term, it will be painful and packed with uncertainty but in the long run, it will make the euro a healthier and more attractive currency. However in the meantime, we still have to keep a close eye on the developments to see how everything will play out. Samaras was unable to form a new government and now its Tsiparas’ turn. Most likely Tsiparas will fail as well in which case PASOK may give it a shot. At the end of day, a second general election will probably need be called in June. Between now and then, loan disbursements and austerity program implementation will suffer and the EUR/USD will remain under pressure. Read more…

We can tell by the price action of the EUR/USD that investors are either scared of being overly short euros or genuinely optimistic that the worst of Greece’s troubles are finally behind us.  It is hard as analysts to understand this sentiment because a credit event for Greece, which is increasingly likely could still wreck havoc on the markets.  However prices do not lie and the EUR/USD is gradually edging higher.  Given the significant amount of short EUR/USD positions in the market, there is no question that fear of a short squeeze has been the main reason for the EUR/USD’s resilience.  Euro rose to its highest levels this year following the German IFO report that showed business confidence rising to its highest level since July.  The EUR started to rally during the early European hours and gained momentum after the German IFO report printed at 109.6 versus a 108.8 forecast.   Un Read more…

The Euro continues to rally, with an acceleration to the upside on Friday after the jobs number out of the US almosted doubled the concesus to the downside.  The stock market may not care to much, but the EUR/USD was definitely affected.
The pair still remains in an uptrend, and has come close to the highs of the resistance area near 1.3400.  It fell off this level as Friday progressed closing out the week at 1.3275.
Upward trendline support comes in at 1.3150 on the hourly charts, but will rise over time.  1.3150 also correlates well with the lows seen before the advance we saw on Friday.  Further support comes in at 1.3110.  Significant support is at 1.2960 which held up under a long run of channeling prices.
On the upside, 1.3400 is the pivot point.  Moving above it gives it room to run towards 1.3700.
The advance has seen our target hit at 1.3200.  1.3400 is now likely to be hit, but will of course require a move above Friday’s high at 1.3334.
Enjoy the weekend,
Cory Mitchell, CMTVantagePointTrading.com

In the broadcast today: Is the GBP Ready for Further Gains vs. USD & EUR? In light of the renewed strength of the British Pound, we explore the potential for further gains of the GBP against the USD and the EUR, we analyze the latest trend developments with the GBP/USD and EUR\/GBP currency pairs, we continue to monitor the bullish breakout in the EUR/USD pair, we follow up on the anticipated strengthening of the commodity currencies: CAD, AUD and NZD, we highlight the market’s reaction to the Australian Consumer Confidence, the New Zealand Retail Sales, the U.K. Jobless Claims, the Euro-zone HICP and Industrial Production, and the U.S. Retail Sales, we discuss new forecasts from Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

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