Risk FX Tumbles as US GDP Revised Lower
Risk FX tumbled lower in early North American dealing after US GDP data for Q3 was revised lower to 1.8% from 2.0% initially forecast. The primary reason for the downward revision was the sharp decline in personal consumption expenditure which accounts for 70% of the US economy. Economists had projected an increase of 2.3% while actual figure came in at 1.7%.
The tepid pace of PCE indicates that the US consumer remains exceedingly cautious in his spending habits given the challenging employment conditions and the moribund state of the housing market. Analysts expect that Q4 of this year will show an improvement in consumption to 3% as labor conditions ease. Indeed today’s weekly jobless claims printed at 364K versus 368K a week ago – the third consecutive time that they have been markedly better than expected.
Still, it remains unclear if consumers will dramatically increase their pace of spending in Q4 of this year. One unexpected factor that could depress sales has been the unusually warm weather in Northeastern US which has forced retailers to discount merchandise prematurely.
“[The chart below] shows that in fact these actions took place in the early portion of the biggest stock market decline in 76 years. These act
“For the first time in many years, retailers are getting ahead of the trend, and the shopper, by introducing new mobile apps that create fun, entertaining and promotion-driven experiences at the malls and in the stores,” explained Wendy Liebmann, CEO of WSL/Strategic Retail. “By usi