Forex Go!

So you just want a simple Forex strategy to trade? Okay, let’s see what we can do…

Firstly, you want to get the probabilities in your favour; this means making sure you’re trading WITH the trend. Yes, I know, you’ve heard it before – but it’s true; trading with the trend will increase the probabilities for you.

The first thing we do is place two moving averages on the chart. The first moving average is a 50 Period Exponential Moving Average of the Highs; and the second is the same, a 50 EMA, but this time of the Lows.

You should have something that looks like this:

Now, we add another Moving Average, this time it’s a 15 EMA of the Close:

Now, there is an indicator for Metatrader4™ to download with this article called ‘QFF-MACDv1.ex4’. Leave the default setting on this indicator. Once you drag it on

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EURUSD Analysis. EURUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.4535 on 4-hour chart. Further decline would likely be seen later today, and first target would be at the lower border of the price channel. As long as the channel support holds, the fall from 1.4535 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.3837, and one more rise towards 1.4700 is still possible, however, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that the rise from 1.3837 has completed.

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD broke above the price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that lengthier consolidation of downtrend from 0.9777 is underway. Range trading between 0.9406 and 0.9529 would likely be seen in a couple of days. As long as 0.9529 resistance holds, another fall could be expected after consolidation and a breakdown below 0.9406 will signal resumption of downtrend.

USDCHF Analysis. No changed in our view, USDCHF remains in downtrend from 0.8276.

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***Economic Data***

– (GE) Germany Jun ILO Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.0% prior
– (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e July 22nd: $530.9B v $528.5B prior
– (IN) India Primary Articles WPI w/e Jul 16th Y/Y: 10.5% v 11.1% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.6% prior
– (HU) Hungary Jun Unemployment Rate: 10.8% v 10.8%e
– (SP) Spain Jun Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.0% v -6.6% prior; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.4% v -4.5%e
– (DE) Denmark Jun Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0%e; Gross Rate: 5.9% v 6.0%e
– (SW) Sweden Q2 Manufacturing Confidence: 0 (flat) v 7e
– (SW) Sweden July Consumer Confidence: 12.0 v 15.5e; Economic Tendency Survey: 104.4 v 109.6e
– (SP) Spain Business Confidence Y/Y: v -12.0e
– (SW) Sweden Jun Retail Sales M/M: 3.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 0.9%e
– (SW) Sweden Jun Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.6%e
– (GE) Germany July Unemployment Change: -11K v -15Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.0% v 7.0%e
– (IT) Italy Jun Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8% prior
– (PH) Philippines Central Bank leaves Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 4.50%; As Expected; Raises the Reserve Requirement by 100bps (not expected)
– (HK) Hong Kong Jun Trade Balance (HKD): -40.3B v -37.2Be; Exports Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 11.5% v 9.5%e
– (EU) Euro Zone July Business Climate Indicator:0.45 v 0.83e; Consumer Confidence:-11.2 v -11.4e; Economic Confidence: 103.2 v 104e; Industrial Confidence: 1.1v 2.0e; Services Confidence: 7.9 v 9.4e
– (PO) Portugal July Consumer Confidence: -49.1 v -50.7 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -2.3 v -2.2 prior
– (BE) Belgium July CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.7% prior (higest reading since Oct 2008)
– (SA) South Africa Jun PPI M/M: 4.4% v 3.9%e; Y/Y: 7.4% v 6.9%e

Fixed Income
– (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold approx €6.2B vs. € Read more…

Pair has been trading in a quite limited range since late Wednesday, having hovered in between 1.6300 and 1.6360 area, lacking clear direction so far. However, the 4 hours chart shows an increasing bearish momentum while 20 SMA is keeping the upside capped, supporting a bearish continuation rally for the cross: watch for a break below 1.6270 strong support area to trigger a deeper fall near the 1.6200/20 price zone.

The upside needs at least a 4 hours candle opening above 1.6360, also above 20 SMA, not seen for today, to push price higher towards the 1.6430/50 price zone.

U.S. stocks will open higher Tuesday as earnings releases from Ford and 3M beat analysts’ expectations and allayed concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. S&P 500 Index futures are currently up 0.2 percent ahead of the open. Today’s main economic data cocktail consists of S&P/CaseShiller home prices in May expected (13.00 GMT) to come out at 139.80 slightly up from 138.84 in April; could this signal the bottom in housing prices? Later, U.S. consumer confidence in July expected (14:00 GMT) to come at 56.0 down from 58.5 in June which is a significantly lower figure than we would normally see in an expansionary economy. In Europe, the Euro STOXX 50 Index futures are currently down 0.2 percent as banks such as UBS and Deutsche Bank reported earnings that missed estimates. Most disappointing in Europe is the comment from STMicroelectronics that it expects a correction in sales which is definitely not a good sign. Read more…

Resumption of uptrend needs to close above 1620-24.

Gold’s previous resumption of the uptrend still needs to close above 1620-24 in order to confirm sustainable extensions higher in line with the major uptrend for extensions into the next key level at 1700.00.

We had prefered hedge for downside risks following the recent unprecedented explosive upside move, which triggered a confluence of our exhaustion signals.

However, as previously stated, it was critical the market confirmed a reversal beneath a filtered price/time trigger point. This downside trigger level still holds at 1588/82.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity within the apex of the 12-year exhaustion pattern (illustrated on the weekly log chart), which has also developed a unique long-term DeMark™ exhaustion signal.

Gold’s COT liquidity indicator (net long positions) remains squeezed within a tight range (as Gold continued to make push to record highs on lower volume). At th Read more…

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***Economic Data***
– (BR) Brazil July FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e
– (BR) Brazil July FGV Consumer Confidence: 124.4 v 118 prior
– (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e July 23rd: +0.3% w/w; +4.2% y/y
– (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest leaves Base Rate unchanged at 6.00%; As expected
– (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e July 23rd: +4.2% y/y; July MTD: -0.6% v Jun
– (MX) Mexico Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: $108M v $263Me
– (US) May S&P/CaseShiller 20 City M/M: -0.05% v 0.00%e; YoY: -4.51% v -4.50%e; Home Price Index: 139.87 v 139.80e
– (BR) Brazil Jun Current Account: -$3.3B v -$4.0Be; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $5.5B v $4.5Be
– (US) July Consumer Confidence: 59.5 v 56.0e
– (US) July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: -1 v +5e
– (US) Jun New Home Sales: 312K v 320Ke

– US equity markets opened flat on the day the morning after President Obama and House Speaker Boehner blamed each other for the failure come to any agreement in the debt ceiling negotiations. Read more…

USDJPY: 78.53

Short-Term Trend: downtrend

Outlook: After trading a week or so between 78.50 and 79.50, the market broke below the support level on Thursday. However, there was no follow through selling as the price action remained choppy and sloppy. So, while the main focus remains on the downside, we need to see a convincing move lower below 77.50/77.00 to maintain the larger-degree bearish view for weakness twd 74.50.
On the upsdie, abv 79.70/90 negates, signals some kind of a low is in….

Strategy: Holding short from 79.69 is favorable.

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Financial analysts are notoriously inaccurate, with doctors possibly being the only other profession that is worse. However, despite this we strongly depend on these, and any kind of prognoses when making investment decisions. Although the thought of such highly educated professionals being so incorrect is chilling, we analyse the inaccuracy of gold and oil commodity forecasters. Chart 1 highlights the historic oil price development and within the graph is also the six quarter forecasted median price of the top oil analysts. We give credit where credit is due, when the markets are trending analysts seem to be somewhat accurate prognosticators. On the other hand when we need them the most, analysts are simply terrible at forecasting through inflection points. We can see this phenomenon when comparing charts 1 and 2. In chart 2, gold analysts have been relatively accurate in their forecasts simply because the market has been trending for the past five years. However, looking back to chart 1, we see that analysts completely missed the run-up in the commodity bubble and the subsequent correction. Read more…