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Some may consider Greece to be both literally and economically distanced from the United States. Ironically, comparisons between the US ‘Lehman brothers’ and the Greek default are being uttered across the European financial landscape and media network. This cross country comparison serves as a powerful and equally haunting reminder of the connectivity between global markets and individual economies. The global financial beast is one and the same. Greek wings are flapping within the European ecosystem pushing Europe to the verge of a financial epidemic. An epidemic Jeremy Cook, Chief Economist at World First believes could make “the falls of three years ago look like a picnic.”

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Yesterday’s market reaction to the news out of the EU could not have been a more perfect scenario for those searching for a ray of hope that the global economy might actually be able to move forward. News out of Brussels was that indeed a solution to the Euro debt crisis had been agreed upon, going a lot further than most had thought possible.

While the markets are still trying to judge the merits of the resolution, the EU took some bold steps to try to stem the crisis. Some of the highlights: Greece gets a larger bailout—but needs to enact major austerity to receive it; Greece gets AAA-rated terms for borrowing from the ECB and EFSF, as does Portugal and Ireland if needed; the ECB will buy bonds and essentially be a bidder of last resort, all but daring speculators to try to drive yields higher on Spain, Italy, or others . These are extraordinary measures that will give the debt-burdened countries a chance at redemption. How

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Never assume the obvious is true – William Safire Measured on the scale of convolution, the latest bail-out deal for Greece scores a 10. On the surface, the deal for Greece and troubled sovereigns is a compromise par excellence – there was something in it for everyone, and as such it was two steps forward, one step back for the fans of a fiscal union. Fiscal union, however is a concept that is foreign not only to most individual countries in the EU, but also clearly one which is tests the outer limits of the Lisbon Treaty, if it doesn’t tread beyond them. The declaration that this was a deal only for Greece was understandable from a political and practical point of view, but in reality it is an extremely dangerous challenge to the market. Greek “exceptionalism” could potentially be the Achilles heel of the deal as it is certainly the weakest moving part of the entire construct. As I write this, Italian 10-year bond BTP futures are off 30 ticks trading at 103.77 after a morning high of 105.66 in the September future. This Read more…

New Zealand’s dollar reached today the record maximum versus its American counterpart at $0.8674.  

The sentiment all over the world improved after yesterday’s EU summit and investors seem to be optimistic on Greece. Analysts at Westpac claim that market’s attention will now switch to the US debt problems. In their view, the greenback will be declining until American debt ceiling is lifted up.

In the near term resistance for the pair NZD/USD is found at $0.8700, while support for the pair is situated at $0.8575.

Credit Suisse Group AG index based on swaps shows that the market expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the interest rates during the next year by 94 basis points – that’s the maximal estimate since November.

New Zealand’s CPI rose gained 5.3% in the second quarter on the annual basis making the biggest advance since 1990. The RBNZ will hold a policy meeting on July 28.

Never the less, it’s necessary to be cautions with the long positions as kiwi is currently overvalued and technical indicators show that it’s rate has risen too quickly and risks to reverse.

 Chart. H4 NZD\/USD

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Well I wouldn’t say that just yet, though the price of oil has gone down in the largest two-day decline we have seen all year. Of course it doesn’t help that it got as high as $114, and is now settling in above $105.

While this has led to higher gas prices , it is much harder for prices to come down once they have reached higher levels. So expect prices to continue to remain at elevated levels as long as oil is above $100.

In other news, CPI data in France came in higher than expected, though it must be noted that this reading is from last month prior to the ECB rate hike. Industrial production in the Euro zone also came in worse than expected, but the Euro is trading higher as the market is looking to shake off two-day declines so risk appetite has increased.

In the UK, the unemployment rate fell to 7.8% from an expected 8%, but jobless claims rose nominally vs. an

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AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD broke off the trading range between 1.0525 and 1.0798, and reached as high as 1.0856, suggesting that the sideways move has completed and the uptrend from 1.0390 has resumed. Further rise towards 1.1011 previous high could be seen in a couple of days. Support is now at 1.0790, as long as this level holds, uptrend will continue.

USDCAD Analysis. USDCAD broke below 0.9444 previous low and reached as low as 0.9423. Resistance remains at the downtrend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance hods, downtrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 0.9350-0.9400 area.

USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF had formed a cycle top at 0.8276 on 4-hour chart.

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Once again President Obama opened the door for politicians to put immediate differences aside and use extra time for Congress to come up with a deficit reduction program that works. In a reversal of his original position, Obama looked like the adult in the room by agreeing to accept a short-term extension of the debt ceiling. Presumably, the extra time will enable Congress to arrive at an agreement and put pen to paper.

On Wednesday, Obama met with Democratic leaders and was scheduled to meet with Republicans leaders, including John Boehner and Tea Party thorn in the foot, Eric Cantor, who seems determined to destroy the Republican Party and the country’s AAA credit rating.

The president wants Congress to work on a combination of the Gang of Six plan and the McConnell Reid plan. His goal is for a long-term solution in spending and revenue increases. Included in the Gang of Six plan is what is now termed Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid “reform.”

If Cantor and his Tea Party wanted national attention, they have far exceeded their goals. They

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The European Banking Authority announced Friday that 8 banks had failed their stress tests and 16 more had narrowly passed. But the results drew much criticism from analysts, who said that the stress test is not strict enough.

Indeed, this is something that European Financial Forecast readers have known since the first stress test last summer.

For a unique perspective on Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, we invite you to read a free 6-page report by Elliott Wave International’s European Financial Forecast editor Brian Whitmer, “Credit Crisis in Europe.” Brian has been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and other EU nations for months. Below is a quick excerpt from this report, written just after the first stress test. For details on how to read it in full now, look below. _________________________________________

Credit Crisis in Europe: How the Stability of an Entire Region is Teetering on the Edge of a Major Collapse

By EWI’s European Financial Forecast editor Brian Whitmer

Panic Now and Avoid the Rush — July 30, 2010 The market’s collective sigh of relief is also reflected in authorities’ stress testing of 91 European banks. In case you

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***Economic Data***

– (GE) Germany Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.5%e
– (DE) Denmark July Consumer Confidence Indicator: -0.6 v +3.0 prior
– (JP) Japan Jun Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: 9.0% v 5.7% prior
– (AS) Austria May Producer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 5.1% prior
– (NV) Netherlands July Consumer Confidence: -12 v -11e
– (SA) South Africa Jun CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.0%e
– (TT) Taiwan Jun Export Orders Y/Y: 9.2% v 10.1%e
– (IT) Italy May Industrial Sales M/M: -1.7% v +1.5% prior; Y/Y: 10.8% v 14.3% prior
– (IT) Italy May Industrial Orders M/M: 4.1% v 2.3%e; Y/Y: 13.6% v 10.2%
– (UK) Bank of England Minutes: Again saw a three-way split among its members for the eight straight meeting with a 6-2-1 vote
– (IC) Iceland Q2 Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 7.8% prior
– (MA) Malaysia Jun CPI Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e
– (IT) Italy May Current Account: -€5.1B v -€5.6B prior

Fixed Income
– (GE) Germany sold €1.642B in 3.25% Jul 2042 Bund; Avg Yield 3.43% v 3.93% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.3x v 1.5B prior
– (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold €750M vs €0.75-1.0B Indicated Range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
– Sold €450M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 4.982% v 4.926% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.4x v 2.0x prior
– Sold €300M in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield 4.960% v 4.954% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.7x v 3.8x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Notes/Observations:
– Growing optimism on a ‘shock and awe’ plan to prevent contagion in Europe

Equities:
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 5835, DAX +0.10% at 7201, CAC 40 +1% at 3731, IBEX 35 +1.8% at 9612, FTSE MIB +1% at 18,417, SMI +0.70% at 5938

– European shares rallied for the second session boosted by the financial sector. Investors are Read more…